Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday

All modes of severe weather are in play Thursday
Published: May. 18, 2022 at 3:54 PM CDT
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ROCHESTER, Minn. (KTTC) – After quiet conditions on Wednesday, warm and moist air will return Thursday which could lead to strong to severe thunderstorms across SE Minnesota and NE Iowa.

Severe weather outlook Thursday
Severe weather outlook Thursday(KTTC)

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our severe weather outlook to a “likely risk” (level 3 out of 5) for SE Minnesota and NE Iowa. The timing looks to be in the evening through the overnight hours Thursday. Models are indicating thunderstorms will be scattered across the viewing area tomorrow evening. All modes of severe weather are in play for tomorrow evening. Make sure to be weather aware Thursday night.

Severe Weather Threats
Severe Weather Threats(KTTC)

Right now, large hail appears to be the primary threat for Thursday evening. Models have been showing the potential for really strong updrafts which would lead to large hail in storms that develop. Strong winds and an isolated tornado are still possible Thursday evening.

Rainfall amounts
Rainfall amounts(KTTC)

There isn’t a good consensus on storm location Thursday evening which makes a rainfall forecast difficult. In general, our area will see around 0.25-1.00″ of rainfall through Friday morning. IF training thunderstorms start to develop, rainfall amounts could reach over 1″ in some areas. Right now, I’m not too confident in that happening.

7-day forecast
7-day forecast(KTTC)

High temperatures Thursday will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with partly sunny skies. Thunderstorm chances will be in the evening and overnight. After this system moves across the area big temperature changes are expected for the rest of the week. Highs Friday will be in the middle 60s with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures this weekend will stay in the 50s with a couple of drizzle spots possible Saturday. Highs next week will be in the 60s through Wednesday.

Nick

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