Randy's Weather Journal

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Thursday Night Thunderstorms

A few thunderstorms have been dropping a bit of small hail in southeast Minnesota, but so far everything has been your run-of-the-mill spring thunderstorm and has stayed below severe levels.  Expect occasional heavy rain, maybe some small hail, and gusty winds with thunderstorms through tonight and Friday.

On the edge of severe

As expected, we still haven't picked up any rainfall around southern Minnesota or northern Iowa quite yet, but conditions are beginning to turn more optimal for heavy rain and thunderstorms beginning tonight. SPC has already issued a tornado watch for portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota for the rest of today, and thunderstorms will begin to increase across the region into this evening.

The heavy rain threat for the next 24 hours doesn't appear to be enough to prompt any flood watches in our area, but that could change depending on how the overall storm system evolves. The way I'm seeing this storm right now, the best flow of moisture will begin to shift to our east Friday afternoon. This isn't to say that we won't get heavy rain, but we should be left out of the "heaviest" rainfall by the end of tomorrow. You can click on the image on the right to see a model estimation of rainfall amounts expected. Computer models are projecting amounts from 1.5" to nearly 2" by Saturday morning throughout southern Minnesota and north Iowa, with Minnesota receiving the higher totals. The image on the left is the region where the most severe weather is expected to occur.

Either way you cut it, we're looking at yet another wet finish to our week. Rain will linger into Saturday morning, and temperatures to kick off the weekend will remain below average. There will be milder days throughout the coming 7 days, and another round of thunderstorms is probable from Tuesday, May 6th into Wednesday, May 7th.

Tuesday School Visit

I ventured to Pine Island Elementary Tuesday to visit Mrs. Erickson and Mrs. Fernholz's 2nd grade students.  We had a wonderful time chatting about weather, I showed pictures of supercells, tornadoes, and lightning.  The kids had a ton of great questions and even better stories to tell about their run-ins with severe weather.

In like a lamb, out like a lion

I suppose it could be argued that folklore held to reality this time around.  March came in like a lamb with seasonably cold temperatures and sunshine, and is going out like a lion...a really damp, slushy, dare I say wimpy yet soaking wet lion.  Here's a little diddy from the Farmer's Almanac on this bit of March folklore.

Snow will be coming to an end tonight with a few locations receiving an additional inch of accumulation.  Tuesday is going to be chilly for early April, but sunshine will return by late Tuesday afternoon.  Upper 40s to low 50s can be expected later this week.  We have yet to hit a high of 50 in Rochester, and this Friday is looking to be the day.  Drive safely out there tonight as the slush and puddles from today freeze overnight.

Midwest Flooding Concerns

From NOAA

Current Major Flooding in U.S. a Sign of Things to Come

“We expect rains and melting snow to bring more flooding this spring,” said Vickie Nadolski, deputy director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Americans should be on high alert to flood conditions in your communities. Arm yourselves with information about how to stay safe during a flood and do not attempt to drive on flooded roadways – remember to always turn around, don’t drown.”

Nadolski called on local emergency management officials to continue preparations for a wet spring and focus on public education to ensure heightened awareness of the potential for dangerous local conditions.

Click here to read the entire article

Midwest Snowfall

Despite having over an inch of snow on the ground every day this winter, the grand total for Rochester's snowfall so far this season is 42.0", which is 4.3" below average.  Minneapolis is also running below normal with a total of 37.8" which is 12.9" below average as of the end of Sunday, March 23rd.

In lieu of our meager totals in Rochester and Minneapolis, just a short drive away La Crosse has received 67" of snow this season, which is 26.1" above average.  Even more extreme, Madison, Wisconsin just surpassed 100" Sunday evening when they received a half inch of snow.  Their total on the season is 100.4", which is a whopping 44.9" of snow above their average.

Strong wind and mild temperatures Monday night through Tuesday morning will work to melt the snow we received this past Friday, and highs will be back in the mid 40s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Friday's Snowfall

Snow hasn't been terribly impressive in Rochester so far, and likely will remain light into the afternoon.  Snow is still falling moderately to heavily close to home, and totals should be coming in on the low end of the 4-8" forecast.

I'm disappointed in the lack of thundersnow here, but it's good not to have to shovel a hefty load of March snow.  Bring on spring.

Click here for updated snowfall totals through today..

 

Have a safe and happy Easter weekend!  Roads should be in decent shape this afternoon as the snow is already tapering off late this morning.  Conditions will be a bit worse in southwest Wisconsin where heavier snow continues as of now (midday Friday).

Tonight-Friday Snowfall: Update #1

I've just finished digging through all the data and have a fair amount of confidence in the going forecast.  There's always doubt...especially after the kind of winter events we've had over the last couple months that look great on paper, but don't deliver in the end.  This storm looks to be more promising, but still carries some issues.

A line of snow is already developing from South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota.  This will begin to overspread southeast Minnesota by the late evening, with light rain and a little snow at first.  Rain will quickly change to snow (within an hour or two) around Midnight and pick up in intensity around 3am.  Our heaviest snow will fall between 3am and Noon Friday, focused on the morning commute.  By 7am Friday, I'm anticipating 2-4" of wet, sloppy snow on the ground with plenty of slush on the roadways (road temperatures are still decently warm from our sunny Thursday and will cause snow to melt initially).  Snow will continue, heavy at times during the morning hours, and will taper to an end by the mid-afternoon Friday.

What will be interesting to watch within the band of snow that forms late tonight is how intense it may become.  By Friday morning, the intensity should be enough to cause what is called 'slantwise convection'.  This, in turn, is something that makes for thundersnow.  We get snow events like this more often in the early and late parts of winter where lightning and thunder can actually accompany heavy snow.  When you hear thunder, odds are there is snow falling heavily--typically to the tune of 2" or more per hour.

Also, the snow that develops with this system will occur in a rather narrow band; one that will make for a very quick drop-off in amounts from north to south.  In a 50 mile or less area we will see totals varying from zero to nearly 8".

Grand totals will be in the 4-8" range, with a few locations potentially receiving up to 10" of snow.

Revisions to snowfall totals and expectations will be posted as we go into tonight and more data comes down the wire.

Happy First Day of Spring: Have some snow!

The vernal equinox occurred this morning at 12:48am, CDT.  So, however you cut it, it's springtime.  Meteorological spring started on March 1st as it always does, and astronomical spring began this morning.

Despite this astronomical phenomenon telling us that winter is over, a winter storm will begin to affect us tonight.  Looking at the latest data this morning, heavy snow potential is looking really good for southeast Minnesota.  At this point, 6"+ amounts are looking good for us, and those planning on doing some Easter travel Friday will have a rough go of it close to home.

I'll have more in-depth information on this storm after I get my forecast put together early this afternoon.

For now (10:20am Thursday, March 20th), the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for tonight through Friday.  This will likely be upgraded to a warning this afternoon.